I haven’t had time to write a new essay, and I wanted a new post so newcomers don’t assume un-Denial.com has shifted its focus to Covid, which is a confusing space populated by crazy people speculating about the intentions of our incompetent leaders. Thank you to reader Frank White for providing a good reason for … Continue reading "By Neil Halloran: A Skeptical Look at Climate Science"
I’ve decided to wait a little longer before being vaccinated, so that I can observe and weigh rapidly accumulating evidence for and against vaccination. I’m feeling social pressure to get vaccinated, and I expect that pressure to increase, so I’ve been thinking about how to discuss this divisive topic with people that I care about. … Continue reading "How to Have a Difficult Conversation about Vaccination"
Thanks to Sam Hopkins for bringing my attention to the work of Chris Clugston. I’m pretty well read in the overshoot space and I thought I knew all the important contributors. Somehow I missed Chris Clugston. Clugston has written two books: Scarcity in 2012, and Blip in 2019. His unique contribution is to research our … Continue reading "Overshoot Doubt? Chris Clugston Kills It"
I just finished the new book by Jeff Hawkins titled “A Thousand Brains: A New Theory of Intelligence”. A bestselling author, neuroscientist, and computer engineer unveils a theory of intelligence that will revolutionize our understanding of the brain and the future of AI. For all of neuroscience’s advances, we’ve made little progress on its biggest … Continue reading "Denial with Cortical Columns"
Earth Overshoot's event will be live-streamed as part of EARTH DAY LIVE events April 22 to audiences around the world. Experts in conservation biology, gender justice and public health will discuss issues raised in the 8 Billion Angels documentary.
Chris Martenson yesterday unveiled what has been going on behind the scenes at Peak Prosperity. I salute Martenson’s honesty for explaining how difficult it has been to make a living from overshoot education. As an aside, I don’t think he’s aware of it, but the reason it’s so hard to teach overshoot is explained by … Continue reading "Crash Course Crash: On Making a Living from Overshoot Education"
Physicist Tom Murphy is one of the brightest and most articulate people in the overshoot awareness space. A decade ago Murphy wrote frequently for a few years on his blog “Do the Math” where he explored the energy opportunities and constraints for powering our civilization. Then, having said what he wanted to say, he went … Continue reading "Tom Murphy’s back, yah!"
Synopsis Geert Vanden Bossche, a vaccine expert with 3o years experience, thinks our vaccination policy has a high probability of causing the virus to mutate into variants that cause more serious illness, and that people who have been vaccinated will spread the virus rather than protecting those that have not been vaccinated, and that the … Continue reading "Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche on Vaccination Policy Risks"
How do we actually break the habit of expecting GDP grow forever? How do we get our government, the financial community, the media, and ourselves trained onto new metrics for our economic and social prosperity? No metric will ever be perfect but there are alternatives to the GDP.
spoiler alert: the answer is no https://www.media.mit.edu/events/will-technology-save-us-from-climate-change/ Bio: Jean-Marc Jancovici is an advisor to the French government on climate change and energy as part of the French High Council for Climate. He is a founding partner of Carbon 4, a Paris-based data consultancy specializing in low carbon transition and the physical risks of climate change … Continue reading "By Jean-Marc Jancovici: Will technology save us from Climate Change?"
Thank you to X for finding this new talk by professor Tim Garrett. Garrett has developed the most significant and useful theory for explaining the relationship between climate change and the economy. In this talk, Garrett explains his theory and tears a strip off climate scientists for their unscientific beliefs. Garrett, in the Q&A, discusses … Continue reading "By Tim Garrett: Jevon’s Paradox: Why increasing energy efficiency will accelerate global climate change"
I watched the new documentary Hot Money tonight. An intelligent world-wise father (General Wesley Clark) and his son discuss some of the problems we face with many smart participants. I don’t think they interviewed a single idiot, which was refreshing. They know something is seriously wrong and make an honest attempt to connect the dots. … Continue reading "Hot Money"
Thanks to friend and retired blogger Gail Zawacki at Wit’s End for bringing this excellent new talk by professor William Rees to my attention. Rees discusses our severe state of ecological overshoot and the behaviors that prevent us from taking any useful action to make the future less bad. Rees thinks there are two key … Continue reading "By William Rees – Climate change isn’t the problem, so what is?"
A recent report issued by an international collaboration of 17 scientists warned that the world is treading towards a “ghastly future of mass extinction, declining health and climate-disruption upheavals.” Terry Spahr reports that what distinguishes this report says a lot about how far we have come in confronting our environmental crises but how far we still have to go.
Gail Tverberg made a comment today that rings true and motivated me to write about something I’ve been mulling for a while… https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/12/23/2020-the-year-things-started-going-badly-wrong/comment-page-24/#comment-274042 I think the reaction to COVID-19 is part of how a self-organizing system works. People were looking for a reason to cut back/shut down. The illness provided this. I do not believe … Continue reading "Is Covid-19 providing cover for Jay Hanson’s Society of Sloth?"
Walking in nature is one of the best things to do, because our genetic memory makes it very enjoyable, and it’s good for your body’s respiration and motility, and it calms your soul in times of stress, and it requires little money, fossil energy, or equipment, except a good pair of boots, and assuming your … Continue reading "preptip: Save Your Sole"
ZeroHedge, the successful bad boy financial news reporting site, is shifting to a subscription model. I might subscribe if ZeroHedge knew what the fuck was going on in the world, but they’re as much in denial about human overshoot as the mainstream news outlets. Granted, ZeroHedge is at least willing to report on the daily … Continue reading "What News Outlet Doesn’t Deny Reality?"
If the Biden Administration’s efforts to address our climate emergency headed by newly appointed Climate Czar John Kerry have any chance of succeeding they must break with the past and embrace a new strategy with vision and courage. Earth Overshoot's Terry Spahr offers a list of "must dos" for the new adminstration.
We don’t allow drunks to fly planes. Because we understand that alcoholism is common, partly genetic, and very dangerous at 30,000 feet. We therefore screen pilots to keep ourselves safe. And alcoholics support this policy because they also want to fly safely. Why do we allow our leaders to deny reality? Reality denial is common, … Continue reading "On Drunks Flying Planes"
I recently purchased a 6 piece queen sheet set for my bed and marveled at how something so useful, and so difficult to make myself, could be so inexpensive, costing only $30, or about 2 hours of my labor at minimum wage. I did a little digging and found this video on how fabric was … Continue reading "On Fabric (aka Fossil Energy is Indistinguishable from Magic)"
For climate change and sustainability, the road less traveled that we must now take, is our unsustainable global population growth.
This post was inspired by a comment from reader Kira. She asked if denying climate change was the same as denying death. I answered as follows: “I suspect there are 2 main groups of people: One group is the 95% of the population that doesn’t really understand the science or the severity of the problem. … Continue reading "The Un-Denial Decision Tree"
Sabine Hossenfelder today explained why we have no free will and why we shouldn’t worry about it. She’s right but she missed an important piece of the story. A quick summary of her essay is that our brain is a computer made of particles governed by the laws of physics that inputs our current state … Continue reading "Sabine Hossenfelder on Free Will"
Why do leaders on both sides of the political aisle fail to see, or fear to admit the true underlying cause of the West Coast wildfires with the public? Earth Overshoot Executive Director Terry Spahr writes about our tendency to reject what may be true but complex in favor of what is simply false.
Three years ago I wrote about Garrett Hardin’s famous 1968 paper “The Tragedy of the Commons” here. The gist of it is that the collective effect of individuals making independent, well-intentioned, rational decisions regarding the use of a shared resource, such as livestock pastures in the past, and our entire planet today, leads to the … Continue reading "On Garrett Hardin’s Denial and the Gift of History"
Most people who are expert on our overshoot predicament and the behaviors that enabled it believe two things: The Maximum Power Principle (MPP) governs our behavior. We have no free will. These beliefs lead to the following conclusions: Our overshoot predicament was inevitable. There is nothing that can be done to improve the outcome. A … Continue reading "Maximizing Power with Fewer Children"
Apneaman is one of the brightest lights illuminating the handful of blogs that discuss reality. Unfortunately he does not have his own blog and so his unique insights are usually buried in a sea of less significant comments. We were discussing here new evidence that the virus was engineered and Apneaman wrote a comment that … Continue reading "By Apneaman: On Plandemics and Denial"
This recent essay by Art Berman may be the best historical analysis of oil and its relationship with the economy I’ve read. https://www.artberman.com/2020/09/03/stop-expecting-oil-and-the-economy-to-recover/ Here is my simplified summary of Berman’s analysis: both supply and demand for oil have recently fallen oil demand fell more than oil supply this despite an all-time record amount of debt … Continue reading "By Art Berman: Stop Expecting Oil and the Economy to Recover"
1400 km and 4 nights in the interior of British Columbia.
This latest video from Jack Alpert is very good. Alpert explains why on our current default trajectory most of the global population that lives after 2050 will experience starvation and that by about 2100 our 8 billion will be reduced to about 600 million serfs leading a medieval lifestyle on a sick planet. Alpert then … Continue reading "By Jack Alpert: How the World Works"
I just listened to Michael Shermer’s interview of Michael Shellenberger on his new book Apocalypse Never. Here is the publisher’s summary of the book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50173134-apocalypse-never
I watch for evidence that supports or contradicts Varki’s MORT theory. With average citizens it’s hard to distinguish ignorance from denial. The only way to know for sure is to explain the facts and associated evidence about human overshoot to someone and then observe if they still deny our predicament and what needs to be … Continue reading "Eric Weinstein: A Case Study in Denial"
Two nights and 22 km on the Bedwell Trail to Cream Lake in Strathcona Park.
Although the plunging numbers of sea life might suggest we should focus on setting more catch limits or enforcing fishing moratoriams, the ever-increasing global population makes a consumption-based approach nothing more than a stop-gap measure. By taking a two-pronged approach that addresses BOTH the supply of marine life AND the demand we can increase our changes for creating a sustainable food source and a healthy ocean ecosystem dramatically.
World Population Day (WPD), established by the United Nations Development Programme in 1989, falls on July 11th every year and focuses attention on the urgency and importance of population issues.
Hopefully most of us can agree that empowerment of women, choice and agency in regards to family size and worldwide access to affordable family planning and contraception services is a moral imperative. Not only are they essential human rights but, once in place, they lead to smaller family sizes, which are better for families, communities and the planet.
Listen in as Earth Overshoot's Terry Spahr discusses the global consequences of our human numbers and why family planning is an essential solution to many of the social and environmental problems we face on a global scale.
The 12-minute interview with Terry starts at minute 6 on the podcast.
I just finished the book Don’t Sleep, There Are Snakes: Life and Language in the Amazonian Jungle by Daniel L. Everett. Thank you to Perran for recommending it. A riveting account of the astonishing experiences and discoveries made by linguist Daniel Everett while he lived with the Pirahã, a small tribe of Amazonian Indians in … Continue reading "Don’t Sleep, There Are Snakes by Daniel Everett"
Thanks to Apneaman for bringing this image to my attention, it’s very interesting. This info-graphic was constructed from a list of cognitive biases assembled by a team of experts collaborating via Wikipedia over a 15 year period. A cognitive bias is defined as: A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or … Continue reading "Biased Cognitive Biases"
I just finished Sabine Hossenfelder‘s book Lost in Math. Whether pondering black holes or predicting discoveries at CERN, physicists believe the best theories are beautiful, natural, and elegant, and this standard separates popular theories from disposable ones. This is why, Sabine Hossenfelder argues, we have not seen a major breakthrough in the foundations of physics … Continue reading "Sabine Hossenfelder’s Lost in Math"
Earth Overshoot Executive Director Terry Spahr sent his youngest son off into the world with a personal message that reflects his feelings about nature, sustainability and the changing nature of "normal." What lies ahead for the Class of 2020?
I first reviewed Harari’s book 5 years ago here. After watching this book sit near the top of popular book lists for several years I thought I should re-read it to see if I missed something. I posted the following refreshed review on Goodreads. Another fine example of Panglossian cognitive dissonance in the tradition of … Continue reading "Yuval Harari’s Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (revisited)"
Every year Nate Hagens gives a talk on Earth Day. I missed the announcement of his talk a month ago, perhaps because I killed my social media accounts, but better late than never. Nate’s presentation as usual is excellent, and this year he provides thoughts on how the virus may influence our overshoot predicament. Here … Continue reading "By Nate Hagens: Earth Day 2020 – The State of the Species"
Greenpeace International Co-Founder Rex Weyler gets real on climate change, sustainability and overshoot.
Enjoy this interview, courtesy of our friends at Rewilding Earth, with the straight talk Weyler is known for including the one solution that most environmentalists refuse to tackle as well as his hope for the future of humanity and nature.
Earth Overshoot Executive Director Terry Spahr reviews the book, "Planet of 3 Billion" by Chris Tucker, which details the role our human numbers play in the global environmental and societal problems currently facing the planet.
Gail Tverberg is one of my favorite thinkers and has been writing about our overshoot predicament for years. In today’s essay she makes the most specific predictions I’ve seen on the probable outcomes of the economic deceleration caused by the Wuhan virus. I suspect most of her predictions will happen, but I’m not confident on … Continue reading "Gail Tverberg on what to expect…"
Does it take a deadly virus to make a global population of almost 8 billion people reduce their consumption? Terry Spahr, founder of Earth Overshoot explains what 57 years of record keeping tells us.
OPEC backs biggest oil cut since 2008 crisis, awaits Russia OPEC agreed on Thursday to cut oil output by an extra 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2020 to support prices that have been hit by the coronavirus outbreak, but made its action conditional on Russia and others joining in. … Continue reading "Providing Alcohol to an Alcoholic"
More evidence that intelligence and education do not reduce reality denial, and that the strength of denial is proportional to the unpleasantness of the reality, as Varki’s Mind Over Reality Transition theory predicts. Two hundred scientists were recently surveyed on their perceptions of global risks. https://futureearth.org/initiatives/other-initiatives/grp/the-report/ Top risks by likelihood: 1. Extreme weather 2. Biodiversity … Continue reading "Denial is Proportional to the Unpleasantness of the Reality"
Terry Spahr explains how our ability to both spread and combat pandemics and other disease outbreaks is connected to our fossil fuel addiction
I finally got around to watching the top grossing movies of 2018 and 2019, Avengers: Infinity War ($2.1 billion) and Avengers: Endgame ($2.8 billion). This type of movie, with extreme fantasy super heroes and over the top special effects, is not my cup of tea, but I decided to watch them to get some insight … Continue reading "On the Avengers and Denial"
Covered in this discussion: the population versus consumption debate, and the obstacles to recognizing overpopulation as the root cause of climate change, fresh water shortages, and environmental degradation.